Here young Michael is being helped by his grandfather to plant an apple tree. Hopefully, in 2050 this tree will be providing Michael with a regular harvest. What will the world be like then? His generation will have to grapple with huge challenges; most caused by – or at least worsened by – the sheer number of us. Climate change is just one example.
Adapted from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1006502/global-population-ten-thousand-bc-to-2050/
Population growth is such a driver of change. But our ingenuity also gives us the opportunity – and responsibility – to rectify and heal. Our climate is changing. Always has, always will. Change that advances fitfully, we do have time to adapt just as mankind (just) survived the last ice-age. But it makes no sense to squander that time, blunder thoughtlessly on, exploiting nature, exacerbating the challenge.
THE CHALLENGE.
In 2000, when Michael’s grandfather was farming his land, the world had just over 6 billion mouths to feed.
This pie chart in the blue circle shows the world then.
23 years on Michael’s father Benmak is running the farm. There are almost 2 billion more in the world.
The thick black line shows how far the different continents have moved.
Most of this advance has been in Asia and in Africa which is growing fast as healthcare and nutrition improve.
Look ahead to 2050. Maybe Michael will be farming this land. The UN estimate there will be almost 2 billion more by 2050, despite numbers falling back in Europe (smaller families) and China (following the One Child policies).
It’s the surging numbers in Africa that are expected be the key driver. 1 billion more on this continent alone. That generates a huge jump in demand for food. How are we getting on meeting that?
Across the world, there have been remarkable increases in crop yields; mechanised farming of huge fields; highly developed crops (increasingly GM), high dosages of fertilisers, pesticides and weed killers. The bounty of this ‘Green Revolution’ has kept a check on the encroachment of agricultural land on natural habitat.
That is, across the world except Africa. Farmers there have a long journey ahead. Methods remain labour intensive (an incentive for larger families!), family run smallholdings abound, the ‘Green Revolution’ hasn’t kicked in yet, yields are a small fraction.
1 furrow, 2 oxen, 3 men
The whole family gets stuck in
There are benefits – far less use of the tons of chemical fertilisers, weedkillers and pesticides needed by today’s crop varieties. Healthy, organic food production.
The downsides are those low, erratic yields, insecure food supplies. The land claimed for farming has been increased in lockstep with the population. Forest clearance releases carbon reserves as CO2. That affects us all.
The Opportunity
Can Africa’s farmers increase crop yields in line with population by the time young Michael is managing his family’s land? The answer had better be YES. It’s an increase of just 2% year-on-year. Not striking out for the productivity of developed economies. But it would match the yields already being achieved in India. The expanding population can be fed without clearing more forests.
